ABOUT
A single risk score for the entire market.
BubbleIndex is a research tool that distills valuation, macro stress, leverage, sentiment, and concentration into one composite reading scored against 125 years of bubble history. It exists to make systemic market risk legible at a glance, with the full reasoning always one click away.
WHAT WE BUILD
The composite risk score combines five weighted categories (Valuation, Macro Stress, Leverage & Credit, Sentiment, and Concentration), each built from public indicators normalized against a rolling 20-year window. The result is a single 0–100 reading that can be compared across decades, not just across the last few quarters.
DATA OVER NARRATIVE
Every reading on this site is derived from public, verifiable data series, not opinion or punditry.
HISTORY AS A BASELINE
The model is calibrated against 125 years of market cycles, so today’s readings are always shown in long-run context.
TRANSPARENCY BY DEFAULT
The full methodology (every category, weight, and indicator) is public and explained in plain language.
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Not investment advice. BubbleIndex describes historical and current conditions. It does not predict future returns. For the full breakdown of how the score is built, see
Methodology.