BUBBLEINDEX
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METHODOLOGY

The composite score, broken into its 5 ingredients.

Every raw input is normalized to a 0–100 percentile against a 20-year rolling window. A reading of 70 means "more extreme than 70% of historical days."
ACTIVE
5 / 5
COMPOSITE
69.9
AS OF
2026-06-11
COMPOSITE WEIGHT MIX
5 ACTIVE CATEGORIES · 100% OF SCORE
VALUATION · 30%MACRO STRESS · 25%LEVERAGE & CREDIT · 20%SENTIMENT · 15%CONCENTRATION · 10%

Valuation

WEIGHT
30
%
SCORE
75
/ 100
CONTRIBUTION
22.5 pts / 69.9
Is the market overvalued relative to history and to actual economic output?
High valuations historically precede major corrections; mean-reversion is the strongest single signal across 124 years.
LIVE INPUTS
Buffett Indicator
50/100
%
194.89
SCORE 50
Shiller CAPE
96.3/100
×
42.08
SCORE 96.3
S&P 500 P/E Ratio
84.2/100
×
31.84
SCORE 84.2
S&P 500 Price/Sales
76.2/100
×
3.65
SCORE 76.2
DETAILS

Macro Stress

WEIGHT
25
%
SCORE
70
/ 100
CONTRIBUTION
17.5 pts / 69.9
How healthy is the broader economy, and is monetary policy tightening into a slowdown?
Inverted yield curves have preceded every US recession since 1955. Macro stress is a leading indicator on a 6–18 month lag.
LIVE INPUTS
Yield Curve (10Y−2Y)
69.7/100
%
0.42
SCORE 69.7
Fed Funds Rate
74.5/100
%
3.63
SCORE 74.5
Unemployment Δ 6M
50/100
pp
-0.10
SCORE 50
Inflation (CPI YoY)
81.8/100
%
3.95
SCORE 81.8
DETAILS

Leverage & Credit

WEIGHT
20
%
SCORE
56
/ 100
CONTRIBUTION
11.2 pts / 69.9
How much systemic leverage and credit stress is embedded in the market right now?
Bubbles pop when leveraged players are forced to unwind. Credit spreads widen weeks before equity drawdowns.
LIVE INPUTS
VIX Level
64.3/100
pts
19.87
SCORE 64.3
HY Credit Spread
30.3/100
%
2.78
SCORE 30.3
Margin Debt YoY
75.8/100
%
25.57
SCORE 75.8
DETAILS

Sentiment

WEIGHT
15
%
SCORE
61
/ 100
CONTRIBUTION
9.2 pts / 69.9
Is fear or euphoria the dominant mood among market participants?
Sentiment extremes are contrarian signals. The trend in fear matters more than the absolute level.
LIVE INPUTS
VIX Trend 30D
71.6/100
%
11.44
SCORE 71.6
IPO Volume YoY
44.2/100
%
16.88
SCORE 44.2
DETAILS

Concentration

WEIGHT
10
%
SCORE
96
/ 100
CONTRIBUTION
9.6 pts / 69.9
How fragile is the index? Does performance rely on a handful of mega-caps?
When 10 stocks drive an index, a shock in one sector takes the whole market down.
LIVE INPUTS
Top-10 Cap Share
96.3/100
%
38.43
SCORE 96.3
DETAILS